Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - September 2025
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Report summary
Global supply has been revised up across the forecast period,. The main upgrades are to US Lower 48 crude and NGL, Brazil, United Arab Emirates and Argentina. Non-OPEC growth remains buoyant despite recent downward pressure on prices, with resilient output from the US Lower 48 and support from Latin America, where production increases in Brazil and Argentina have gained momentum. Our base case outlook for OPEC+ remains stable, with output beyond September 2025 remaining largely flat through 2026 and 2027.
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