Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - October 2019
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Report summary
Global liquids supply is forecast to grow 300,000 b/d in 2019, to 100.5 million b/d, and increase 1.8 million b/d in 2020 to bring total supply to 102.3 million b/d. Total liquids supply has been revised down by 250,000 b/d for 2019 and 110,000 b/d for 2020. Downgrades this month are dominated by OPEC: crude output has fallen in response to the September attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais processing facilities in Saudi Arabia, along with a lowering of our Iran outlook as exports fall. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2021. Global supply continues to grow strongly in 2021, increasing by 1.3 million b/d to give total liquids supply of 103.6 million b/d. US supply momentum slows down, but our OPEC outlook remains broadly flat in 2021. This assumes OPEC producers continue to show production restraint to offset continued non-OPEC supply growth.
Table of contents
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Global supply: short term forecast extended to 2021
- Non-OPEC: US slowdown continues through 2021
- US Lower 48: Permian remains the key growth area in 2021
- OPEC: 2021 output remains flat as producers continue adherence to cuts
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