Global oil supply short-term update - October 2020

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Global liquids supply is forecast to fall by 5.1 million b/d year-on-year in 2020, to 95.4 million b/d, and increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2021 to 97.6 million b/d. Total liquids supply has been revised up by 20,000 b/d for 2020 and 230,000 b/d for 2021. The upgrades are largely driven by brighter prospects for production recovery in Libya. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2022. Global supply continues to grow strongly in 2022, increasing by 1.9 million b/d to average 99.5 million b/d. Non-OPEC supply growth (excluding unconventionals) is slightly lower than the growth in OPEC supply, with around half of the non-OPEC gains accounted for by the US. We assume that OPEC producers continue to show a degree of production restraint to offset the continued non-OPEC supply growth.