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Country Report 08 October 2021

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Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The OPEC+ group met on 4 October as Brent oil prices rose above $80 per barrel. Despite pressure by some to increase supply more, OPEC+ agreed to stick with its current plan – adding 400,000 b/d of supply back into the market in November. Overall global supply has been revised down by around 100,000 b/d in 2021 and 2022. Downgrades to Iraq and Nigeria are offset by near term upgrades to US onshore Lower 48 crude, China and US NGLs. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2023. Total global supply grows by 2.3 million b/d in 2023, to average 102.8 million b/d. Non-OPEC liquids supply contributes 1.5 million b/d of the forecast growth, through continued US Lower 48 crude and condensate recovery and easing OPEC+ cuts.

Global oil supply: OPEC rollover and US capital restraint continues despite high prices
- Non-OPEC Supply: US Gulf of Mexico recovers from Ida, downward revisions to US Lower 48 in 2022
- US Lower 48: capital restraint continues into 2023
- Outlook extended to 2023: production increases depend on the US and Russia
- OPEC: group conclude to stick with existing plan to ease volumes back into the market