Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - October 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Our supply outlook has been revised up this month. The OPEC+ group met on 7 September and agreed to unwind 137,000 b/d of the 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut in October. Our base case assumes a partial unwinding of this cut through Q1 2026, with output remaining stable over the rest of 2026 and 2027 due to a weakening outlook for prices. The trajectory of non-OPEC growth remains strong, despite US crude production declining from 2026. Upward momentum is sustained by rising US NGL output and further increases in supply from Canada, Brazil and Argentina. Risk to supply exists from further or accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, and greater impact from the ‘snapback’ of UN sanctions on Iran.
Table of contents
- Service update
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - September 2025
Upgrades to global supply driven by US Lower 48 crude and NGLs, Brazil, United Arab Emirates and Argentina
$1,350
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - August 2025
OPEC continue accelerated production return; US Lower 48 supply outlook downgraded
$1,350
Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - July 2025
Minor changes to outlook as prices return to below $70/bbl
$1,350
