Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - October 2025
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Report summary
Our supply outlook has been revised up this month. The OPEC+ group met on 7 September and agreed to unwind 137,000 b/d of the 1.65 million b/d voluntary cut in October. Our base case assumes a partial unwinding of this cut through Q1 2026, with output remaining stable over the rest of 2026 and 2027 due to a weakening outlook for prices. The trajectory of non-OPEC growth remains strong, despite US crude production declining from 2026. Upward momentum is sustained by rising US NGL output and further increases in supply from Canada, Brazil and Argentina. Risk to supply exists from further or accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, and greater impact from the ‘snapback’ of UN sanctions on Iran.
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