Will this downturn be different for upstream operators and the supply chain? Are the majority of the cost savings made in 2014-17 structural and here to stay – or cyclical and set to erode as the oil price increases? Since 2014, we have removed almost US$1 trillion of upstream capital expenditure from our estimates for 2015-20 – the result of project deferrals, supply chain deflation and optimisation. The US onshore industry shows how quickly cost inflation returns when the market recovers, yet also how important efficiency and productivity gains can be. Across the globe, part of the savings will undoubtedly stick. But how much and for how long?