Country Report

Global upstream oil supply summary - April 2018

05 April 2018

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05 April 2018

Global upstream oil supply summary - April 2018

Report summary

The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Global supply growth remains strong in the near term, despite substantial downward revisions this month to Venezuela. Global liquids are forecast to grow 2.4 million b/d in 2018 and 1.9 million b/d in 2019, with total supply revised down close to 350,000 b/d in both years. Analysis in this monthly update includes: the extent of our downgrade to Venezuela's oil production outlook, and the reasons for it; uncertainty surrounding US policy toward Iran and how it could impact the oil market; and potential takeaway capacity concerns in the Permian.

Executive summary
- Global supply growth downgraded as Venezuela production declines accelerate; wider geopolitical risk increases
- Geopolitical risk premium increases as Trump shakes-up the White House
- Impact of renewed US sanctions on Iran
- Venezuela: switch to low case supply outlook as production declines accelerate
- Could takeaway constraints in the Permian spoil the party?