Global upstream oil supply summary - August 2018

The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Gulf Arab OPEC members and Russia are already increasing production under the recent OPEC agreement to offset losses in Venezuela, Iran and Libya, although Libya has seen some recovery recently. In the US, growth in Permian crude oil production is pushing the limits of pipeline capacity until the end of Q3/Q4 2019. In our latest outlook, global supply is forecast to grow 2.1 million b/d in 2018 and 1.8 million b/d in 2019. We have made minor downward revisions of 50 kb/d in 2018 and 140 kb/d in 2019: the main catalyst being a lowering of our production outlook for Iran as buyers of Iranian crude look to reduce imports in line with US secondary sanctions.