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Country Report 02 February 2018

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. The near-term outlook for global supply remains one of strong growth, despite continued production restraint from OPEC and non-OPEC. Global supply is forecast to increase year-on-year by 2.4 million b/d in 2018 and 1.8 million b/d in 2019, on an annual average basis, driven by upward revisions in US Lower 48 oil and NGL supply. The growth is only marginally offset by downward revisions to Venezuela, with reports suggesting a sharp drop in output in Q4 2017. In Nigeria, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) - largely responsible for the 2016 disruption - vowed to launch a fresh wave of attacks on oil installations. We continue to assume production restraint from OPEC and non-OPEC is held through 2019, supported by comments at the January JMMC meeting.

Executive summary
- Global supply: surge in growth for 2018 and 2019 despite production restraint
- US L48 upward revisions drive strong growth in 2018 and 2019
- NGL growth fuels further US gains
- OPEC JMMC: 2019 extension of cuts broached for first time