Global upstream oil supply summary - July 2017

The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2018. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download.  Global supply has had an upward revision of 70,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d in 2017 and 2018 respectively since our last update. This is largely driven by upgrades to supply in Libya and onshore US. Even with the assumption of an OPEC rollover of cuts through to the end of 2018, global supply is still projected to grow by 1.6 million b/d in 2018.  The outlook for OPEC supply remains relatively stable this update. We have revised our OPEC production numbers for 2017 and 2018 up slightly due to Libya’s increased production and Ecuador announcing that it would not meet its promised OPEC cut of 26,000 b/d of production. Our outlook for total non-OPEC supply has been revised upwards, mainly a result of calibrating rig counts in the US Permian and Mid-con.