Country Report
Global upstream oil supply summary - October 2018
Report summary
The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. We have extended our forecast to 2020. Key changes this update include upgrades to our supply forecast for Kuwait, Iraq and the US and downgrades to Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Brazil and the North Sea. We assume OPEC producers continue to restrain output through to 2020 as the US maintains strong growth, albeit at a slower rate than 2018 and 2019. Global Supply is expected to grow year-on-year by 2.1 million b/d in 2018 but the pace of growth is expected to slow to 1.5 million b/d by 2020.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Global supply growth slows to 2020
- Annual non-OPEC supply growth drops to 1.6 million b/d in 2020
- US Lower 48 supply: when will the Permian surge?
- 2020 OPEC supply remains broadly flat
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