How long will Egypt's gas crunch last this time? Report

Insight 19 September 2023

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Report summary

Egypt is experiencing an earlier than predicted gas deficit. Production at the key Zohr field has fallen due to water breakthrough. With some onshore producers focusing on oil and limited new development opportunities following disappointing recent deepwater exploration, the country’s gas supply outlook is challenged. To compensate for declining production, Egypt has imported record volumes from Israel in 2023, becoming a net importer again. Egypt has several ways to balance the market, including reducing demand and importing LNG. We expect the supply outlook to brighten towards the end of the decade with increasing imports of regional piped gas aiding supply. And increased exploration led by the Majors could yet alter dynamics.

Executive Summary
- Back to the shortages of a decade ago
- Zohr’s output declines below the DCQ
- Others take their foot off the gas
- Egypt returns to net gas importer status
- Outlook for LNG exports challenged
- What are Egypt’s options?
- Short term
- A lean few years beckon

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Egypt's gas production by field
Zohr's current and previous production forecast
Egypt's piped gas and LNG imports

Egypt's monthly LNG exports
Eastern Mediterranean key gas infrastructure
Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea Majors exploration acreage and key upcoming wells
Regional unrisked supply potential