Insight
How might sustained higher prices impact North Sea output?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Conflict in the Middle East continues to cause supply disruption and price volatility. In a scenario of substantially increased oil and gas prices over the next year, how would the outlook for North Sea producers change in 2026? While there was a response to the gas supply shock of 2022, this was preceded by a period of steadily rising energy prices. The circumstances are different today, and the sector is far less prepared to respond. We expect the reaction from North Sea producers to a prolonged period of high prices would be more muted this time. This report details the levers North Sea producers could pull to respond to higher prices.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- How the 2026 crisis compares to 2022
- The North Sea’s response will be Norway-driven
- Does Norway have capacity to produce more in 2026?
- The UK will find it harder to respond
- Near-term options to increase supply
- 1. Maintenance
- 2. Debottlenecking
- 3. Diverting gas from in-field use to sales
- 3 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Monthly Brent prices (left) and NBP & TTF gas prices (right) 2020-presentEurope crude oil production*Europe gas production*
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The 2022 crisis: y-o-y change in liquids production from onstream fieldsThe 2022 crisis: y-o-y change in gas production from onstream fieldsNorway gas pipeline exports and maintenance scheduleNon-sales gas volumes in Norway and percentage of wellhead volumesThe 2022 crisis: y-o-y upstream capital expenditure change (real terms, excludes decommissioning)Hedging positions by select North Sea operators in 2026
What's included
This report contains:
