Insight
Indian deepwater gas at risk from spot LNG
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Deepwater projects are going to drive India's gas production starting 2021. Gas from these projects, operated by Reliance and ONGC, will have to compete for market share against cheap spot LNG. While gas demand is recovering post coronavirus, spot LNG prices should stay low till 2022. We believe that these deepwater volumes are at risk of being replaced by spot LNG. However, not all deepwater gas is equal. Upstream economics, market location and buyer preferences will all dictate the amount of domestic gas which is at a higher risk of being replaced.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Deepwater gas from Krishna-Godavari basin set to provide incremental domestic gas supply
- Only 15% of new deepwater gas has been contracted
- Key outcomes of the RIL/BP gas auction in November 2019
- Post-pandemic global LNG market still offers upside for spot LNG imports
- Not all deepwater gas is at equal risk
- Andhra Pradesh and Telangana – small demand centres but with clear advantage for domestic gas
- Upstream economics - Reliance can go lower, ONGC struggling to compete
- 4 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Domestic gas supply by projects and overall gas demand (2015-2025)Contracted vs uncontracted deepwater gasGas volume offtake by buyers till date (KG-D6 only)
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Fully cycle returns and remaining valueRemaining life project breakevens and SRMCDelivered gas price to GujaratFull cycle IRR impact due to lower Brent indexationMonthly LNG Indian imports and spot priceRisk to uncontracted deepwater gasGas sales mechanismGas infrastructure
What's included
This report contains:
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