Insight
Is there still value for IOCs in the Middle East?
Report summary
IOC value in the Middle East is US$146 billion. Four Majors capture more than half of it: Shell, ExxonMobil, Total and BP account for US$78 billion. It is also heavily weighted to Qatar. The country accounts for only 8% of the regional upstream value, yet it provides 37% of the IOC value through the development of its LNG and GTL industries. Companies with higher value barrels typically hold developed assets in relatively more favourable fiscal regimes, such as Israel, Kurdistan, Qatar and Oman. Low value barrels are typical for companies operating in Iraq. Resilient cash flow at low prices has become the key portfolio consideration. The low-cost opportunities in the Middle East will continue to attract interest, particularly from the Majors and Asian NOCs, with opportunities to invest in large-scale long-term assets. We expect IOCs to increase their production by 1.8 million boe/d over the next five years and to invest more than US$250 billion over the next decade.
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