Libya hits production landmark but political divisions overshadow outlook

Libya's oil production has increased steeply from a low-point of below 300,000 b/d to over 1 million b/d. Much credit must go to Libya's National Oil Company (NOC), for remaining staunchly neutral and depoliticising oil. We think that Libya may now be reaching its near term production limits and future growth will be more gradual. Effective export capacity will be constrained by damage to a key port and limitations in what upstream developments can produce to a maximum of 1.25 million b/d. But reaching this would be quite an achievement given ongoing challenges including a reluctance of IOCs to recommit capital and expertise, an NOC starved of funding and, not least, the propensity for violence to flare up and armed groups to hinder oil output. Our political analysis draws from our sister company, Verisk Maplecroft, to evaluate possible political scenarios and outcomes for Libya over the next year.