Lower 48 oil and gas supply: bouncing back, but not immune to the energy transition

We have updated our Lower 48 oil and gas supply outlook to 2050. After three consecutive forecast downgrades, we are upgrading our short- and medium-term oil production view. We expect oil supply to grow between now and 2025, before entering a plateau. Lower forecasted oil prices along with inventory constraints in the 2040s result in a late-term oil production downgrade. The Permian drives both oil and gas production growth for the Lower 48 in the short- and medium-term. Permian associated gas production is also the main gas growth driver until the 2040s when it starts to decline.