Lower 48 oil supply: the Permian and the Rest

We have just released our latest Lower 48 oil supply view as part of the Macro Oils long-term 2021 outlook to 2050. After three consecutive forecast downgrades, we are now upgrading our production outlook through the medium term. As the industry recovers from a rocky 2020, optimism is warranted, but not all Lower 48 regions benefit. What has changed and where? We expect Lower 48 to peak at a higher production level than in our prior outlook. We expect operators to focus on low-cost, core acreage in the short term, leaving less productive inventory for the latter half of the forecast. The recovery hasn’t been uniform, and our outlook reinforces the Permian’s heft over “the Rest” of the Lower 48 oil plays.