Insight
Lower 48 supply: impacts of evolving investor demands
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Tight oil recently delivered its most prolific growth year ever. Why, then, have we just downgraded our long-term Lower 48 crude oil forecast for the first time? Forecasting tight oil production has evolved. Price is no longer the most important driver. Rather, investor pressure is the top priority. Operating within cashflow and paying down debt is far more important than growth at all costs. In this Insight, we examine the key changes to our US onshore supply outlook. • How drastically has our US crude outlook fallen? • What are the near and long-term factors shaping our view? • Which regions have fallen the most, and where has fared better?
Table of contents
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A first time for everything: downward supply revision
- Price is no longer the predominant driver for tight oil supply
- Core inventory is not infinite
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What changed in our forecast?
- Permian Basin: majors rig up while everyone else rigs down
- Rocky Mountain region: surprisingly resilient
- Eagle Ford & Mid-Continent: rising gas cuts threaten infill locations
- Conclusion: a path forward
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Regional forecast revision H1 vs H2
What's included
This report contains:
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