Name: Non-OPEC decline rates: lower for longer
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 72681
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 31 August 2017

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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Decline rates are a critical factor influencing the oil market and price recovery. Investment cuts at producing fields and a reduced pipeline of new projects since the price crash should have caused non-OPEC decline rates to increase. From historical lows in 2014, decline rates jumped to 5% in 2015. But our analysis suggests they will stay at this level until 2020. In the short term, operators have implemented self-help measures aimed at maximising cash flow. Longer term, projects launched during the period of high investment will mitigate declines over the 2018 to 2020 period. But these drivers will wane beyond 2020 as the effects of the lack of investment are felt. Higher prices will be needed to stimulate investment in new conventional production. We analyse the potential effect on a widening supply gap from different decline rate trends. Stable decline rates are a disappointing story for those looking for significant price support coming from declining conventional production.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive summary
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#e1b940ea-220e-47b7-bacb-390bdbcd5222" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="e1b940ea-220e-47b7-bacb-390bdbcd5222" aria-expanded="false">
            Introduction
        </a>
        <ul id="e1b940ea-220e-47b7-bacb-390bdbcd5222" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        After reaching record highs, investment in producing fields has now halved
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#24c14181-2b57-413c-bc5c-ee226e923cea" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="24c14181-2b57-413c-bc5c-ee226e923cea" aria-expanded="false">
            Why global declines will remain stable until 2020
        </a>
        <ul id="24c14181-2b57-413c-bc5c-ee226e923cea" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Two short-term factors have stabilised declines at 5%
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Longer-term factors will hold decline rates below historical norms
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Differences in regional decline rate trends reflect the wide range of drivers at play
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Onshore declines are far less severe
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Without increasing investment, non-OPEC declines will accelerate after 2020
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Changing global decline rates: potential impact on the oil market
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Conclusion
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#5283276a-a41e-4a76-847a-38467f21296e" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="5283276a-a41e-4a76-847a-38467f21296e" aria-expanded="false">
            Appendix
        </a>
        <ul id="5283276a-a41e-4a76-847a-38467f21296e" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Methodology
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        OPEC decline rates
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
         <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Annual average non-OPEC decline rate (excluding North America tight oil)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Supply gap by 2021, minus 1% change in non-OPEC declines...</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">...And plus 1% increase in declines</li>
     </ul>
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            View more tables and charts in this report
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        <ul class="list list--bullets panel-toggle" id="fbadc4a0d043461aa0cd9f0cc285a83a">
            <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">New sources of supply that close the 2021 supply gap under our base case forecast</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Non-OPEC capex on producing oil fields (excluding North America tight oil) and Brent oil price</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Canada oil sands production profile</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Oil sands effect on the global decline rate</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Proportion of production by asset vintage</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Asset vintage decline rates</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Production from European projects onstream since 2011</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Effect on European decline rates</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Average non-OPEC decline rates: the biggest producing regions have the lowest declines</li>
                <li>3 more item(s)...</li>
        </ul>
        
    </div>

</div>

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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >Regional Appendix.pdf</p>
<p class="uppercase delta">
    <span>PDF</span>
    <span>725.28 KB</span>
</p>
</li><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >Non-OPEC decline rates: lower for longer</p>
<p class="uppercase delta">
    <span>PDF</span>
    <span>478.44 KB</span>
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