Non-OPEC decline rates: lower for longer
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Introduction
- After reaching record highs, investment in producing fields has now halved
-
Why global declines will remain stable until 2020
- Two short-term factors have stabilised declines at 5%
- Longer-term factors will hold decline rates below historical norms
- Differences in regional decline rate trends reflect the wide range of drivers at play
- Onshore declines are far less severe
- Without increasing investment, non-OPEC declines will accelerate after 2020
- Changing global decline rates: potential impact on the oil market
- Conclusion
-
Appendix
- Methodology
- OPEC decline rates
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Annual average non-OPEC decline rate (excluding North America tight oil)
- Supply gap by 2021, minus 1% change in non-OPEC declines...
- ...And plus 1% increase in declines
- New sources of supply that close the 2021 supply gap under our base case forecast
- Non-OPEC capex on producing oil fields (excluding North America tight oil) and Brent oil price
- Canada oil sands production profile
- Oil sands effect on the global decline rate
- Proportion of production by asset vintage
- Asset vintage decline rates
- Production from European projects onstream since 2011
- Effect on European decline rates
- Average non-OPEC decline rates: the biggest producing regions have the lowest declines
- 3 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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