North Sea upstream: 5 things to look for in 2022

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23 November 2021

North Sea upstream: 5 things to look for in 2022

Report summary

Long-term upstream uncertainty shows no signs of abating. But in the short-term, things in the North Sea look pretty good. Production growth and near record cash flows in 2022 will strengthen balance sheets and keep economists happy. While investment is set to stay near 20-year lows, a record number of FIDs are on the table; driven largely by Norway's tax package. Deal flow will pick up, even if regulatory uncertainty in the UK will put downward pressure on valuations. Longer term, Glasgow's COP26 placed further emphasis on the phase out and decarbonisation of fossil fuels. Efforts around platform electrification and new energies could see the North Sea emerge as a global leader. But time is of the essence. Fiscal changes could become a hot topic. In the UK, there is high tension between the Government's net zero leader aspirations and yet still encouraging investment in upstream oil and gas. Should it look to wind down the sector, a windfall tax cannot be ruled out.

Table of contents

    • 1. Production growth and (near) record cash flows
    • 2. A record number of projects await FID
    • 3. Exploration: near-field activity to dominate as scrutiny heightens
    • 5. New energies: integrated projects start to take to shape
    • What to look for in 2022 – a regional upstream series

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • UK company cash flow versus government share
  • Investment by country
  • Investment by development status
  • Investment sanctioned versus number of potential FIDs
  • Exploration wells by company in 2022
  • UK wells to watch in 2022
  • Norway wells to watch in 2022
  • North Sea sellers by peer group
  • North Sea Implied Long-Term Oil Price
  • Pre-FID and under development CCS projects

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    North Sea upstream: 5 things to look for in 2022

    PDF 2.08 MB