Insight
Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2018: geopolitics, US tight oil and non-OPEC resilience
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Global liquids capacity increases from 103 million b/d in 2018 to a broad plateau of around 113 million b/d in the early to mid-2030s. In the near-term, non-OPEC (US onshore in particular) is the key driver of global supply growth. Beyond 2025, there is increasing reliance on OPEC capacity growth to offset mature field declines from non-OPEC and a slowdown of onshore US growth. This insight comprehensively addresses the complexities of oil supply to 2040 with detailed analysis on a series of themes: • OPEC and geopolitics. How will OPEC production and capacity evolve, and what are the geopolitical risks that could impact our assumptions? • The growth in US tight oil. When will US tight oil production peak, and at what level? Which plays drive this growth and what are the risks? • Non-OPEC supply. Will the resilience in headline non-OPEC production continue? Where are the new sources of supply coming from, and at what cost?
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
OPEC and geopolitics: a more uncertain world
- US sanctions impact Iranian near-term supply; long-term capacity additions will be delayed
- Production declines accelerate in Venezuela; recovery will depend on political change
-
US tight oil: can it deliver strong growth?
- Corporate strategy: seeking balance
- Permian leads the charge
- Other key plays provide stable base for Permian to grow
-
Resilience of non-OPEC supply: new sources of growth mitigate declines
- FID’s are on the rise
- Projects are evolving
- Higher cost supply is still required longer-term
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Volatile geopolitical dynamics add to global supply uncertaintyUS total liquids productionNon-OPEC future sources of supply (pre-FID, YTF, reserves growth, contingent resources)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Asset Report
Other Rocky Mountains tight oil and gas unconventional play
Explore other tight oil and gas reservoirs beyond the established key Rocky Mountain plays. Identify pioneering E&Ps and new opportunities.
$2,800
Asset Report
Future exploration outlook
Focuses on the near-term exploration outlook until 2030 and the sector’s longer-term prospects to 2050.
$11,000
Asset Report
Powder River tight oil unconventional play
A detailed analysis of the Powder River tight oil unconventional play.
$2,800
