Insight
Oil supply long-term outlook H1 2018: geopolitics, US tight oil and non-OPEC resilience
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Global liquids capacity increases from 103 million b/d in 2018 to a broad plateau of around 113 million b/d in the early to mid-2030s. In the near-term, non-OPEC (US onshore in particular) is the key driver of global supply growth. Beyond 2025, there is increasing reliance on OPEC capacity growth to offset mature field declines from non-OPEC and a slowdown of onshore US growth. This insight comprehensively addresses the complexities of oil supply to 2040 with detailed analysis on a series of themes: • OPEC and geopolitics. How will OPEC production and capacity evolve, and what are the geopolitical risks that could impact our assumptions? • The growth in US tight oil. When will US tight oil production peak, and at what level? Which plays drive this growth and what are the risks? • Non-OPEC supply. Will the resilience in headline non-OPEC production continue? Where are the new sources of supply coming from, and at what cost?
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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OPEC and geopolitics: a more uncertain world
- US sanctions impact Iranian near-term supply; long-term capacity additions will be delayed
- Production declines accelerate in Venezuela; recovery will depend on political change
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US tight oil: can it deliver strong growth?
- Corporate strategy: seeking balance
- Permian leads the charge
- Other key plays provide stable base for Permian to grow
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Resilience of non-OPEC supply: new sources of growth mitigate declines
- FID’s are on the rise
- Projects are evolving
- Higher cost supply is still required longer-term
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Volatile geopolitical dynamics add to global supply uncertaintyUS total liquids productionNon-OPEC future sources of supply (pre-FID, YTF, reserves growth, contingent resources)
What's included
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