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Oil supply long-term outlook H2 2018: navigating structural change

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23 November 2018

Oil supply long-term outlook H2 2018: navigating structural change

Report summary

Global liquids production capacity is expected to show strong growth over the near- to medium-term reaching a broad plateau at around 114 million b/d from 2030. This outlook is supported by the recovery of prices and significant uptick in new project sanctions during 2018. This report is an overview of our H2 2018 Global Oil Supply Outlook, covering: • Non-OPEC production and when it peaks • How much growth is down to the US Lower 48 • How robust is non-OPEC production excluding the US despite the recent downturn in prices • The role of OPEC and capacity change to 2040 • Analysis on the risk to the supply outlook from heightened global geopolitical tensions

Table of contents

    • Non-OPEC supply dominates near-term growth, led by US Permian upgrade
    • US Lower 48 crude: faster ramp up, (slightly) higher peak
    • The roaring 20s for the Permian; meanwhile growth in mature plays starts to peter out
    • OPEC long-term growth led by Iraq, UAE and Kuwait capacity increases; offsetting Iranian sanction losses

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