Our H2 2018 Macro Oils long-term view remains relatively unchanged from our Spring outlook. The global oil market continues to grapple with the rise of tight oil, and longer-term, the prospect of peak oil demand as the energy transition gathers momentum. In the short-term, strong non-OPEC supply gains continue to surpass demand growth, putting pressure on OPEC to restrain production to maintain prices above $70 per barrel. But as we move into the early part of next decade, US supply growth decelerates rapidly. This takes pressure off OPEC and sets the stage for higher prices as demand continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate. With oil demand forecast to peak in the late 2030s prices come under downward pressure. But any price adjustment is limited by the high cost supply needed to meet the 110 million b/d of oil demand by 2040.