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Report summary
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Global supply outlook remains robust
- Non-OPEC supply dominates near-term growth, led by US Permian upgrade
- US Lower 48 crude: faster ramp up, (slightly) higher peak
- The roaring 20s for the Permian; meanwhile growth in mature plays starts to peter out
- OPEC long-term growth led by Iraq, UAE and Kuwait capacity increases; offsetting Iranian sanction losses
- Global demand: trend of fading growth holds despite upward revision
- Gasoline demand: India overtakes China as main growth centre
- Diesel/gasoil demand: Europe in decline as 'dieselisation' reverses
- Petrochemical feedstocks dominate demand growth, but environmental regulation poses a key risk
Tables and charts
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- Brent price outlook (real)
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