Insight
Petroleum fiscal systems: 4 things to look for in 2026
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
With Brent hovering around US$60/bbl and companies maintaining strict capital discipline, upstream investment is refocusing on core projects. In this environment, fiscal terms become decisive. Governments face a buyer's market, where competitive licensing strategies and fiscal stability matter as much as geology. Four critical fiscal trends will influence upstream petroleum investment in 2026: 1) Sweetened fiscal terms ahead of licensing rounds 2) Legislated fiscal stability clauses 3) Bespoke fiscal frameworks for mature assets 4) Direct negotiations are gaining traction
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- 1. Potential fiscal sweeteners ahead of 2026 licensing rounds and elections
- 2. Will fiscal stability legislation become more common?
- 3. New terms may emerge for incremental production and mature assets
- 4. Direct negotiations and other hybrid offerings will become more common
- Things to look for in 2026 – a regional upstream series
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Upcoming licensing rounds and elections with potential fiscal changesFiscal evolution of a typical basin (Wood Mackenzie’s global fiscal coverage)Maximum government share
What's included
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