Insight
Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest
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Report summary
22 major projects and seven billion boe of commercial reserves delayed – that's the damage of the last six months. The total tally of pre-FID projects we estimate have been deferred due to lower oil prices now stands at 68, containing 27 billion boe of reserves.This constitutes US$380 billion of total capex deferred, with US$170 billion at risk over the next five years. With the average Brent breakeven (NPV10) of delayed greenfield projects remaining above US$60/boe, the outlook is bleak for the majority to move into FID contention in 2016.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- The industry six months on
- A growing impact on future oil production
- and US$380 billion in capital now at risk
- Major projects, major operators
- The role of cost deflation
- Underwater at US$60/bbl
-
Breakevens by resource themes
- Breakevens by regions
- 2015 FIDs – what do they tell us?
- 2016 FIDs – what to look out for
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes 14 images and tables including:
- Changes in total deferred reserves since June
- Changes in deferred reserves (bn boe) by theme
- Liquids production impacted by project FID delays
- Deferred pre-FID capex 2016-20 (US$ billion, real)
- Deferred capex by country (US$ billion, real)
- Deferred projects by country and commercial reserves (million boe)
- Net company exposure to delayed projects
- Changes in capex/boe by project type
- Changes in capex/boe by region
- Delayed greenfield projects IRR economics at base and US$60 (real) Brent price decks
- Resource theme cost curve: Breakeven price versus % commercial reserves of delayed projects
- Appendix: The 68 deferred projects
- Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by theme
- Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by region
What's included
This report contains:
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