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Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

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Report summary

22 major projects and seven billion boe of commercial reserves delayed that's the damage of the last six months. The total tally of pre FID projects we estimate have been deferred due to lower oil prices now stands at 68 containing 27 billion boe of reserves.This constitutes US$380 billion of total capex deferred with US$170 billion at risk over the next five years.With the average Brent breakeven (NPV10) of delayed greenfield projects remaining above US$60/boe the outlook is bleak for the majority to move into FID contention in 2016.

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    Pre-FID project deferral update: deepwater hit hardest

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    Pre-FID project deferral update.xls

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

Images

  • Changes in total deferred reserves since June
  • Changes in deferred reserves (bn boe) by theme
  • Liquids production impacted by project FID delays
  • Deferred pre-FID capex 2016-20 (US$ billion, real)
  • Deferred capex by country (US$ billion, real)
  • Deferred projects by country and commercial reserves (million boe)
  • Net company exposure to delayed projects
  • Changes in capex/boe by project type
  • Changes in capex/boe by region
  • Delayed greenfield projects IRR economics at base and US$60 (real) Brent price decks
  • Resource theme cost curve: Breakeven price versus % commercial reserves of delayed projects
  • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by theme
  • Breakevens (NPV10) of projects, by region

Tables

  • Appendix: The 68 deferred projects

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