Pre-FID project deferrals: impact on global oil supply

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29 October 2015

Pre-FID project deferrals: impact on global oil supply

Report summary

Planned future oil projects that have not yet received a final investment decision (FID) are a crucial element of future global oil supply. Many have been deferred over the past year as the economics no longer stack up under low oil prices. Wood Mackenzie has conducted extensive analysis of these projects to determine the volumes deferred as a result of the oil price fall. On a like-for-like basis over two million b/d of oil supply has already been deferred by early 2020 as companies delay the sanctioning of projects. This report covers: What has happened to pre-FID projects since 2014? What does project deferral do to the pre-FID outlook? Which countries and resource themes have been the most heavily affected? Ongoing deferral of these projects will continue to be a tangible consequence of lower prices and plays a key role in shaping future oil supply.  

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Pre-FID projects: where are we now?
  • Over two million b/d deferred by 2021 on a like-for-like basis
  • Brazil leads the way in like-for-like deferred volumes
  • Global pre-FID projects delayed by over a year
  • Deepwater and ultra-deepwater hit hardest – due to higher costs
  • Further deferrals anticipated as price recovery takes time

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • Migration of pre-FID reserves (billions) from 2014
  • Total pre-FID production Q3 2014 vs Q3 2015
  • Like-for-like pre-FID production profiles
  • Like-for-like pre-FID production changes by country
  • Average like-for-like pre-FID project start times from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015
  • Like-for-like pre-FID production changes by resource theme

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Pre-FID project deferrals: impact on global oil supply

    PDF 506.36 KB