Insight
Rebuilding Venezuela’s upstream sector: where optimistic ambitions meet harsh realities
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The US’ military action to capture Nicolas Maduro could be a dramatic inflection for Venezuela’s upstream sector. The huge resource opportunity it represents collides with equally immense execution challenges for a country that has suffered from years of underinvestment, sanctions, rising costs and operational decay. But the US’ push for radical and rapid change is strong. The Trump administration met with oil executives in Washington on 9 January and messaged its aspirations for US$100 billion of fresh investment to grow Venezuelan oil supply. However, the gap between aspiration and reality is stark. ExxonMobil described Venezuela as currently 'uninvestable', though we and it believe this could change. Beyond the initial low hanging fruit that companies like Chevron can bring back, adding 1 million b/d would require tens of billions of dollars of upstream investment alone, at a unit cost far above competing opportunities elsewhere.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Venezuela’s production saga
- Washington’s outspoken ambitions
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What could future Venezuelan oil output look like?
- The near-term is about supply restoration
- Longer term recovery requires substantial investment. And time.
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Many, many hurdles must be overcome
- 1. Supply chain
- 2. Human capital
- 3. Fiscal
- Are Venezuela's barrels disadvantaged?
- What companies will be interested in investing?
- What about gas?
- Looking ahead – aspiration versus reality
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Venezuela's production and annual expenditurePossible Venezuela production pathwaysBreakeven ranges
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Capex by company and U.S. companies' global production profiles (working interest)Surrounding offshore gas resourceVenezuela’s 2026 post-tax operating and free cash flow breakevensOrinoco Belt company exposure (all blocks operated by PDVSA)Government share in selected countries within the Major’s portfolios
What's included
This report contains:
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