Russian Federation Upstream: 2015 in review Report

Insight 18 January 2016

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Report summary

2015 was a turbulent year for the Russian upstream . The oil price continued to decline, but for upstream producers, this was offset by a depreciating rouble. This helped Russia to keep liquids production high. The state, however, saw declining tax revenues. EU and US sanctions continued, stalling tight oil and Arctic developments, and restricting access to financing. Russia continued its “pivot to Asia” striking a range of deals with Asian companies and seeking Chinese financing. This, however, has happened to a lesser extent than expected. Russia’s gas export strategy was driven by political considerations rather than commercial rationale. Turkish Stream became a victim of the deteriorating relationship between Turkey and Russia. Gazprom's Nord Stream expansion plans faced opposition from some European states. There was also a shift to renew negotiations with Ukraine over transit post-2019.

Executive summary
Geopolitical uncertainty continues
- Oil price effects on upstream producers offset by collapsing rouble
- Fiscal changes –fire-fighting from the state
- Sanctions
- Russia’s pivot to Asia - slower than expected
Russian gas - dominated by politically driven decisions
- Gazprom’s European strategy
- LNG
  - Yamal LNG – Russia’s flagship project showing considerable construction progress
  - Far East – more questions than answers
  - Other developments
    - Corporate