Insight
Russian Federation upstream: 5 things to look for in 2025
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The outlook for Russia’s upstream in 2025 is more positive than it’s been for the past three years. Both oil and gas production are likely to rise. A key milestone will be met in gas exports to China. The Vostok Oil project will see further investment. Stable levels of hydrocarbon tax revenue will continue to underpin government spending plans. The big unknown is what the return of President Trump will mean for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. The outcome of any negotiations will have a profound impact on EU/US sanctions policy towards Russia’s upstream sector. We highlight the five key themes to watch in 2025: • Oil – how much will Russia produce next year? • Vostok Oil – what progress will be made at Rosneft’s flagship project? • Gas – what next for production and export markets? • EU/US sanctions – are they going to ease or tighten? • Fiscal – what changes are on the horizon?
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- 1. Russia’s role in OPEC+ will determine oil production level
- 2. Vostok Oil development will continue
- 3. Gas production could exceed 700 bcm
- 4. EU/US sanctions on Russia’s upstream could tighten but may ease
- 5. Major fiscal changes in the upstream are unlikely
- Things to look for in 2025 – a regional upstream series
- Global upstream insights:
- Regional upstream insights:
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Russian Federation crude and condensate productionPaiyakhskoye oil fieldRussia Federation gas exportsEU/US/UK Sanctions on RussiaHydrocarbon tax revenue
What's included
This report contains:
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