Russia's upstream under sanctions: the new normal

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Report summary

Russia's upstream industry has shown resilience to EU/US sanctions, despite delays to over US$10 billion of IOC funded exploration activity in key supply growth areas - Arctic offshore, deepwater and shale oil projects. In spite of limited financial support from the State due to lower budget revenues, Russian energy companies have raised around US$14 billion from Chinese sources, allowing them to continue with flagship projects. Russian oil production has not been affected in the near term, and reached a post-Soviet peak of 10.91 million b/d in March 2016. We believe sanctions pose longer term risks that will impact Russian oil production post 2020.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Russia's upstream under sanctions: the new normal

    PDF 330.13 KB

Table of contents

    • IOCs support frontier exploration before sanctions introduced
    • Sanctions delay exploration of supply growth areas
    • IOC commitment remains
    • State companies hardest hit by financial sanctions
    • Low oil prices limit State support
    • Financing from Asia still available
    • Rosneft's short-term outlook
    • Large-scale Arctic offshore production unlikely in the near-term
    • Production heartlands reach record levels
    • What next?

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:


  • Forecasted IOC exploration spend for Arctic offshore projects
  • Russian liquids production 2010-2025


  • IOC exploration deals with Russian oil companies
  • Who is targeted?

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