Suncor faces a Millennium-sized dilemma
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Millennium Mine Extension project background
- The extension faces a unique regulatory quagmire
- The project decision will inevitably be a political one
- Scenario 1: Millennium Mine Extension proceeds
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Scenario 2: organic in situ projects built to replace the mined bitumen
- No single operator has brought on this much in situ growth simultaneously
- Contrasting brownfield mine and greenfield in situ economics
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Wildcards: M&A provides more options
- Sunrise, CNOOC and MEG have different cons and none are enough on their own
- Mixing acquisitions and newbuild investment has risk-mitigating appeal
- The net zero / emissions overlay
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Scenario1: Suncor bitumen production
- Scenario 1: Suncor capital spend profile
- Scenario 2: Suncor bitumen production
- Scenario 2: Suncor capital spend profile
- Economic outputs
- Cumulative cash flows under Base price
- Timeline of events
- Appendix: Map of Suncor Base Mine and vicinity leases and projects
What's included
This report contains:
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