The 21 billion tonne elephant in the room: scope 3 emissions from upstream oil and gas

Upstream oil and gas fields will generate 21 billion tCO2e of scope 3 emissions in 2026, accounting for over 80% of oil and gas value chain emissions. Yet unlike scopes 1 and 2, these emissions are largely beyond operators' direct control, arising downstream through the processing and combustion of the products they produce. Drawing on our proprietary asset-level scope 3 emissions dataset, this insight explores: End-use emissions — How does oil product combustion compare to gas? And how do refinery output and product demand shape end-use emissions? Refining emissions — What role do crude quality and refinery complexity play in this often-overlooked category of scope 3? What can operators do? — Can operators meaningfully influence their Scope 3 footprint, or are they better served by focusing on scopes 1 and 2? And is industry sentiment on scope 3 beginning to shift?