Growth is back in vogue. After three years of grinding austerity, the big five – BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and Total – are shifting the agenda to volume. And there is much to shout about. Near-term production growth has not looked so strong for over a decade. Longer-term, however, the picture remains challenging, despite the progress made in re-engineering portfolios to work at low oil prices. All but ExxonMobil will need to access new volumes – sooner rather than later – if they are to avoid production declines from the early 2020s. In this Insight, we analyse and benchmark the Supermajors’ production outlook: legacy decline; volumes under development; flexible growth options; speculative upsides.