Insight
US Lower 48: 4 things to look for in 2026
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Lower 48 oil and Lower 48 gas will have very different years in 2026. While oil faces oversupply headwinds, gas is well positioned behind hyperscaler power demand and the next LNG wave. In this Insight, we highlight four key themes including activity efficiency, Permian dominance, gas-focused M&A, and emerging appraisal areas becoming critical supply sources.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- 1. Horizontal rig count will fall below 500
- 2. Core Permian plays produce over 50% of US onshore liquids
- 3. M&A market reorients itself with gas-weighted deals
- 4. Step-outs evolve into more important supply areas
- Things to look for in 2026 – a regional upstream series
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Permian rig efficiency2026 capex at riskPermian dominates onshore US oil supply
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US Lower 48 annual growth ratesEV/EBITDA (2025-2026 consensus) vs. debt capacity to reach 40% net debt/book capitalWestern Haynesville supply outlookModern completions could improve metrics
What's included
This report contains:
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