US Lower 48 oil outlook: Is the party over?

With oil sitting below $40, many question the outlook for U.S. unconventional oil production and economics. Operators continue to gain efficiencies in the field, push for further service cost reductions, and the cost of supply continues to shift lower. In this insight, we take a look at how production will hold up against our Macro Oils short and long term price forecasts as well as under a number of other price scenarios. While the current drop in activity will result in production decreases in the short-run, we believe this concurrently sets a production floor with flatter base declines, supporting potential strong growth post-2018 as shown in our latest long term U.S. supply forecast.