This insight is an update of the 'US Lower 48 oil outlook: Is the party over?' report that was originally published in December 2015 and examined a number of sensitivities around our H2 2015 (Part 1) supply forecast. In this insight, we run the same sensitivities on our H1 2016 (Part 2) supply forecast. Sensitivities around service costs and prices are the most pivotal inputs inspected. The biggest change from H2 2015 is the amount of supply that can come online in the $40-50 per barrel range. In Part 1, the $50 scenario resulted in a continued decline in production over the next 20 years. In Part 2, the $50 scenario results in an additional of 2.0 million b/d by 2025.