Insight
Why a shortage of investment opportunities is upstream's biggest challenge
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Upstream capital investment is starting to rise again after years of dramatic cuts. But is the industry investing enough to sustain its own future and ensure sufficient oil and gas supply through next decade? Using our analysis of project-by-project spend, we consider the factors that will determine upstream investment to 2030. Critical factors include the strength of the project pipeline and corporate investment confidence.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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The investment downturn is over but how strong is the recovery?
- The near-term investment outlook is mostly good news
- but the longer term is more fragile, especially outside the US
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Upstream’s structural investment challenge
- Industry focus on returns means only the best projects have moved ahead
- Improved returns have come at the expense of scale
- The number of project sanctions is rebounding, for now
- The pipeline of pre-FID projects needs to get bigger and better
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How the outlook could change: the drill bit, oil prices and tech will be key
- Exploration is an investment x-factor. Can leaner explorers deliver scale and value?
- Ultimate potential of US tight oil is a key swing factor
- Investment upside in reserves growth will be material, but is hard to predict
- Rising demand should push up prices and stimulate spending
- Conclusions
- Appendix: Investment categories
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key investment risksGlobal upstream investment risked*
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Pre-FID fields – resources sanctioned per yearGlobal upstream investment scenarios
What's included
This report contains:
