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Will Iran's ambitious oil policies succeed?

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17 May 2016

Will Iran's ambitious oil policies succeed?

Report summary

Iran has set ambitious goals for its oil production. Firstly to regain pre-sanctions market share, and secondly to produce 5.7 million b/d of crude oil by 2020 - a 2 million b/d increase compared to current production capacity. The country’s state oil company, the NIOC, has is not showing restraint in ramping up production. But challenges start once Iran reaches its oil production capacity. In order to go beyond, the country will need to accelerate new developments and attract foreign technology and capital to boost output from its ageing fields. Potential is there, the fields’ recovery rate is typically low due to a lack of investment and the NIOC is luring foreign companies under improved fiscal terms. Strategic choices are being made, with the creation of a new heavy oil blend for export and condensate being used internally to satisfy domestic needs. Iran has ambitious oil production targets, but after so many failures, can the country finally assert itself as a top world oil player? 

Table of contents

    • Short term goal: ramp-up to regain market share
    • Long term growth depends on the successful launch of the new IPC
    • Infrastructure is not a bottleneck in the short run
    • Heavy oil supply will increase with the launch of West Karun blend
    • New refining capacity will absorb strong growth in condensate production
      • Please find the slide pack in the DOWNLOADS section

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