Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long-term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The worldwide government response to the pandemic in the shape of green investment, which is wedded to stimulus spending and energy transition, has fundamentally changed the outlook for the aluminium industry. A low carbon world will bring disruption and dislocation for the aluminium market. We expect to see greater regionalisation of production and demand. Moreover, pricing is set to move from global price discovery to one defined by the carbon intensity of aluminium. However, there are a multitude of possible future outcomes. We are just at the start of a major shift in the dynamics of the aluminium market.
Table of contents
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Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- Base case incentive price
- The impact of emissions and inert anode technology
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- and the benefits of non-carbon electrolytic cells
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Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
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Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- China’s path to carbon neutrality
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2020
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2020-2040
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- India
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Africa
- 3 more item(s)...
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2020-2040
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- India
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
- Forecasting methodology
- Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
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Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2020-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2020-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global aluminium balance and pricesPrimary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, MtpaStock days of consumption and price
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Global supply-demand balanceStock days and priceSmelter grade alumina balanceAlumina demand and capacity, 2010-2040, MtpaCHALCO extends its leadGlobal alumina balance and pricesGlobal seaborne bauxite balance and pricesSeaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)Key bauxite ore routes freight forecasts
- 69 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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