Asset rich, energy poor Maximising Africa’s natural resources to transform the continent

Using Africa’s mineral resources to Africa’s advantage

The continent’s mineral wealth is supporting global development and is underpinning electrification and energy access around the world. Africa is the dominant source of cobalt, accounting for over two-thirds of global mine output, while its copper production now makes up around 20% of total supply. African copper, lithium, cobalt, manganese and rare earth elements are increasingly built into clean technologies worldwide.

While these minerals provide valuable revenues to numerous African governments, most of the production is exported to China for processing before end-use in renewable energy and battery manufacturing. Given the scale of risk-tolerant Chinese investment in resource-rich African countries, this could present Africa with an opportunity to strike deals with China for investment in clean energy projects at home in return for access to its critical mineral resources.

Maximising Africa’s hydrocarbon riches

Increasing Africa’s low-carbon energy supply is essential, but not the only show in town. The continent also needs to maximise its oil and gas production. Despite the scale of existing discoveries, only around a third have been commercialised, one of the lowest rates in the world.

Many African producers have ambitious plans to boost oil and gas output, but are increasingly frustrated by the challenges involved. Major barriers include poor governance, weak regulation, limited local gas markets which all contribute to a lack of access to competitive finance for local companies.

Nonetheless, Africa’s major producers are determined to grow output. Regional heavyweight Nigeria has set a target of doubling oil production to 3 million barrels per day (b/d) and gas output to 12 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2030, while Angola left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2023 specifically to facilitate greater liquids production. To hit these targets, regulators in both countries have introduced fiscal incentives to stimulate investment, attracting nearly US$20 billion in project final investment decisions (FIDs) since 2024.

Elsewhere, Libya aims to restore output to 2 million b/d before 2030 – from around 1.4 million b/d currently – after years of above-ground disruption. Offshore Africa is less vulnerable to disruption, and discoveries there could be developed more quickly, as in Côte d’Ivoire. Namibia’s deepwater Orange Basin, meanwhile, is another bright spot for new oil production.

Africa is already a major LNG player

Africa accounts for almost 10% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, and this can continue to play a major role in the monetisation of hydrocarbon resources. With force majeure recently lifted on the TotalEnergies-led Mozambique LNG project, East Africa is set to become a major LNG exporting region. Meanwhile, the ExxonMobil/Eni Rovuma LNG project, also in Mozambique, continues to make progress towards FID. Together, these projects will transform the country’s economy and could support local gas power, petrochemical and industrial investments. Africa is also a leader in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG), boasting 6 out of 10 operational projects worldwide and more to come under current plans.

Future revenues from Africa’s oil and gas projects will support economic growth and increased energy access. Under Wood Mackenzie’s base-case scenario, the region’s oil and gas is expected to generate an average US$109 billion annually in government revenue through 2030. With only a third of Africa’s hydrocarbon resources developed, this should be higher if more hydrocarbons are monetised.

Natural gas could be Africa’s next big hydrocarbon story

Despite its leading role in LNG, Africa itself consumes only 4% of the world’s gas supply and has the world’s lowest gas consumption per capita – less than one-quarter of the global average.

Whether Africa produces its gas for export or develops domestic markets is not a binary decision. For the Majors, securing export volumes will remain the obvious lure. However, accelerated LNG development across West Africa and Mozambique could also be an anchor for fostering local gas demand.

Governments and companies are increasingly recognising this opportunity. To develop domestic gas markets in the most economical way, African governments are overhauling regulations for gas development, clarifying fiscal rules and, in many instances, implementing gas master plans, such as Nigeria’s Decade of Gas initiative, which kicked off in 2021, and the Republic of Congo’s gas masterplan launched in early 2025.

However, developing an adequate gas-to-power transition across Africa needs problem-solving throughout the value chain , from financing upstream gas projects and combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generators to installing transmission and distribution infrastructure. Governments across Africa also need to incentivise investors with competitive feedgas pricing and consumer tariffs. Other stumbling blocks deterring large-scale gas projects for the domestic market are identifying and securing credible offtakers and guaranteeing payments.

As with liquids, there are positive developments underway. Recently discovered deepwater gas in Côte d’Ivoire, for example, is being earmarked to supply significant volumes of gas into local power and industrial sectors, as well as exports via FLNG. Despite the obstacles, a growing number of proposed cross-border gas pipelines point to increasing regional cooperation towards gas-driven economic growth. Affordability challenges remain, but displacing diesel and fuel-oil demand in power and industry with gas is the most economic route to monetisation and will contribute to emissions reduction.

Meeting Africa’s upstream emissions challenge head on

Few places on earth understand the impact of climate change more than Africa. However, Africa’s own emissions are not the problem. In Wood Mackenzie’s base-case Energy Transition Outlook, Africa’s total contribution to global emissions climbs to just 6% by 2050 , despite its strong population growth and rising energy demand.

Africa is not asking for a free pass on its upstream emissions, though it is increasingly determined to develop its own oil and gas with or without the help of others. Critics specifically call out Africa’s emissions from oil and gas production. However, Wood Mackenzie data show that African upstream scope 1 and 2 emissions in 2025 are around 125 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e), corresponding to less than 9% of global upstream emissions. Nor is Africa the worst-performing region from an emissions intensity perspective. Western countries and financial institutions holding back capital that could help develop Africa’s gas resources because of the emissions it would generate risk contributing to energy poverty, especially as countries across North America, Europe and Asia double down on gas use in their economies.

None of this deflects from the need for Africa to continue to minimise emissions. The Majors are leading the way with low-carbon upstream projects, such as Baleine in Côte d'Ivoire, which are demonstrating Africa’s potential to develop its resources sustainably. Elsewhere, Eni’s FLNG projects in the Congo and Mozambique have optimised energy-efficiency technologies, while the Agogo ‘green’ floating production storage and offloading vessel offshore Angola is piloting one of the first post-combustion carbon capture units and advanced electrification, automation and digitalisation. Several African governments are also stepping up, enacting anti-flaring laws and carbon-neutrality policies to demonstrate their commitment to supporting the sustainable development of their oil and gas resources.

Ways to transform Africa’s energy landscape

Increasing energy access across Africa must be a global priority.  The solutions lie in Africa working to maximise its own resources with the support of the rest of the world – including Western countries and China.

• Innovative solutions can transform electricity access. Africa’s electrical utilities face major insolvency challenges, but are not the only option for increasing power supply. Decentralised, bottom-up solar-and-storage mini-grids and off-the-grid clean power alternatives are already playing a role in markets across West and North Africa.
  
  
• Delivery of climate finance. The OECD countries need to increase delivery of pledged climate finance. China’s access to Africa’s mineral resources could also be more closely tied to Chinese investment in clean power. Doing so will help boost Africa’s renewable generation capacity and other low-cost modular solutions.
  
  
• Replacing traditional cooking fuels with cleaner energy. Low-cost, clean electricity and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking will transform the lives of hundreds of millions of people. Initiatives like the World Liquid Gas Association’s roadmap to expand access to LPG for cooking across Africa are leading the way.
  
  
• Realising the full potential of Africa’s oil and gas resources. Many African leaders have signalled their willingness to work towards better governance and more competitive oil and gas regulations to support greater investment. To this end, the African Petroleum Regulators Forum was established in September 2025 to strengthen policies, promote investment and address investor concerns.
  
  
• Increasing access to capital for indigenous exploration and production companies. The Majors and other international oil and gas companies continue to play a key role in Africa, but local producers need financial support to deliver on smaller and more marginal fields. In response, African nations have established the African Energy Bank to shore up funding for new projects by local companies.
  
  
• Natural gas can play a greater role in Africa’s energy mix. LNG exports make sense for Africa, but developing domestic gas markets, expanding gas power capacity and building out gas-based industries should be helping to drive economic growth, displace oil products and reduce emissions. Caribbean countries, including the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago, provide workable examples of how gas markets can be expanded in developing economies.