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We provide an unrivaled view into real-time operations at refineries across the US and Canada, covering 90% of refinery operations in the US and 66% of refining capacity in Alberta, Canada.
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North American refinery planned outage schedule
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North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: December 2023
The Canadian crude egress bottleneck has returned…. again. Fundamentals across the board point to egress constraints in Western Canada. Canadian supply ticked higher in recent months as maintenance wrapped up and as producers boosted output ahead of TMX’s anticipated start-up. This drove WCSB long-haul pipelines to operate near maximum utilization in November. Effects of the bottleneck are already being seen in heavy price discounting, inventory builds, and higher crude-by-rail loadings. Now, a recent regulatory denial is expected to cause further delays to TMX’s construction timeline. A later start-up threatens to prolong egress constraint conditions in Western Canada until the new system comes online. In this report, we provide our updated expectations for TMX timeline and discuss our forecasts for pipeline utilization and price differentials regarding the adjusted schedule.
This report contains:
North American Crude Market December 2023 Short Term Outlook Slidepack.pdf
WCSB Supply & Diluent Outlook December 2023.xlsx
North America Crude Midstream Outlook December 2023.xlsx
North America Crude Supply & Pricing December 2023.xlsx