OPEC and non-OPEC producers interim meeting: key takeaways

The OPEC/non-OPEC Joint Market Monitoring Committee (JMMC) held its 5th meeting on 22 September 2017 in Vienna. The committee put off deciding on an extension of the production restraint agreement beyond the current expiry of end-March 2018. Since this was a mini-meeting of the JMMC, a decision on an extension was unlikely. Key OPEC ministers and Russia's Energy Minister remain open to the idea. Discussion of this issue will take place again at the 30 November 2017 full ministerial session in Vienna. Based on the outcome of last week's JMMC meeting, we see no reason to change our base case assumption, made in the early July Macro Oils Monthly Update, to extend production restraint through 2018. Other issues from the meeting we discuss include Libya and Nigeria's rising production and progress towards rebalancing the market.