How 2020 dealt tight oil another blow

For a while, US shale seemed unstoppable – oil’s 21st-century equivalent of the 1840s gold rush. Tens of billions of dollars were poured into tight oil assets by E&P companies of all shapes and sizes and Lower 48 oil output tripled to 10 million b/d. But it was never sustainable. Two years ago, we saw the emerging signs of a slowing sector and called for the peak rate of growth in 2018, a view we still hold today. Then 2020 happened – a price collapse that has set back US tight oil and help change its future. In this insight, we address: How the price crash affects future US Lower 48 oil production Five forces reshaping the sector today Wildcards that might alter tight oil’s trajectory What fewer US barrels mean for the oil market