Energy transition outlook: Net zero scenario
Global warming target of 1.5°C achieved by 2100.
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Trajectory: energy innovation
Trajectory: energy innovation
This pathway represents a wholesale rewiring of the global energy system. Renewables dominate while advanced technologies displace remaining fossil emissions.
Outlook
Outlook
The most ambitious Paris Agreement goals are met. Developed economies reach net zero by 2050 and emerging markets follow.
Key features of our net zero scenario
Fossil fuels become redundant
Efficiencies lower global energy demand. Policy and pricing make cleaner alternatives the default choice over oil and gas.
Renewables rule
Clean energy runs the core supply, with other generation used only for balance.
Hydrogen, CCUS and bioenergy earn their place
Where electrification is challenging, full-scale adoption of bioenergy, carbon capture and hydrogen displace remaining emissions.
Capital shifts decisively into clean energy
Clear policy signals unlock investment across the value chain.
Global cooperation not optional
Alignment on scaling finance and new technology development critical to meeting targets.
Ambitious policy powers the transition
No more soft targets. Carbon pricing, ICE bans and accelerated coal exits drive the transition.
Emissions
Globally, net emissions peak in 2025 and reach -7.8 Gt CO2e by 2060.
Investment
Achieving the ultimate end goal of net zero scenario requires cumulative capex spend of US$175 trillion to 2060.
See the bigger picture
Our energy transition outlook executive summary includes more analysis of these themes and the evolution of the energy and natural resources landscape across all four energy transition scenarios.
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Our energy transition scenarios to 2060
We’ve mapped out four distinct energy transition paths based on cross-sector, multi-commodity modelling
Base case
Base case
Our assessment of the most likely outcome, corresponding to 2.6˚C warming, under evolution of current policy and technology trends.
Country pledges
Country pledges
Our view of how countries’ existing long term emissions targets are achieved, roughly in line with a 2˚C warming trajectory.
Net zero
Net zero
A 1.5 °C by 2100 pathway, dependent on extraordinary levels of policy ambition, capital mobilisation and technological deployment.
Delayed transition
Delayed transition
A five-year delay in decarbonisation efforts due to geopolitical volatility and policy direction, with to a 3.1 °C pathway.