How might coronavirus impact global energy and commodity markets?
In our recent webinar, "Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: impact on commodities", our team of experts from across the energy value chain explored the immediate and future impact of coronavirus on global commodity and energy markets.
Read on for some highlights of that discussion or scroll down to access the 30-minute webinar recording.
1. How might coronavirus impact the Chinese economy?
China is heading for its slowest GDP growth since 1990. Travel bans, factory closures, and the wide-reaching disruption of supply chains will hit production and consumption hard.
Our base case, which assumes quick containment, forecasts a sharp rebound in Q2 2020. The recovery relies on a swiftly enacted package of economic and fiscal stimulus as well as political and social measures.
2. How are virus containment measures affecting China’s oil and petrochemical demand?
For the first quarter of 2020, global oil demand is revised down by 900,000 b/d. China accounts for 550,000 b/d of lost demand. In the webinar, we compare the pre-outbreak outlook to the revised outlook and look at the likely impact of coronavirus on global oil demand through 2021.
3. What will be the impact on global LNG markets?
Coronavirus exacerbates slow APAC demand growth as an oversupplied global LNG market prepares for 27 Mt of new supply this year.
4. Will the virus hurt the previously positive near-term outlook for the metals and mining sector?
Our metals and mining analysts are monitoring the impact across three categories – demand, trade and market sentiment. There has been an immediate fall in demand for steel and power because of the slowing economy and displacement and quarantine of workers. The impact will soon be felt further along the supply chain, where, for instance, miners rely on the supply of spare parts and raw materials from China. In the longer term, the recovery depends on the speed and scale of the stimulus package. In the webinar, Derryn Maade, global head of bulk commodities, explored in more detail the impact on steel, bulks, coal, copper, aluminium and more.
Other questions we answered include, what other economic and political risks does the coronavirus raise? Could the virus reach pandemic status and what would this mean for global commodity and energy markets? Listen to the webinar to find out more.
Quantifying the impact of coronavirus WEBINAR
A team of experts in natural resources, above-ground risk and pandemic modelling explore the ways in which coronavirus could disrupt global markets. Watch a short extract here or fill in the form below to receive the full recording and presentation slides.
Learn more about the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on global commodity markets. Fill in the form on this page to receive a video recording of this webinar and a copy of the presentation slides.