Electric vehicles – the story so far
What impact will EV take-up have on the oil industry?
The most immediate effect of the growth in EVs will be the decline in oil demand. If EV stock rises as we expect it to, we’ll see almost 5.5 million barrels per day of gasoline and diesel demand displaced. That number could climb even higher as fuel efficiency continues to improve and as more countries and governments establish more stringent fuel efficiency mandates. We also looked at the expected disruption to the oil market and where the growth in EVs is likely to be most pronounced.
Due to the size and growth of China's middle class, this region is going to be key to the growth of EVs.
Which markets are likely winners of an EV boom, and are they ready?
It's not just the oil industry that will see a knock on effect from EV growth. With demand for battery raw materials growing at an unprecedented rate, the lithium and cobalt industries are set to be transformed. With EV growth driving demand for lithium-ion batteries, we spoke with Thomson Reuters on all things supply chain at their Global Base Metals Forum. Managing consultant, James Whiteside, shared his thoughts during this Q&A session.
Following this, research associate Milan Thakore sat down with Dukascopy to discuss the impact EVs are having on the battery and raw materials market. In this video interview, Milan talked about China's plans for EV standardisation and the expected impact on lithium demand. He also addressed the question about whether EV manufacturers will be able to secure enough battery raw materials and he shared our 2018 outlook for cobalt.
Why isn't EV take-up as quick as expected?
With an estimated 280 million passenger cars expected by 2040, the global energy transition has picked up steam. However, by the end of 2018, there will only be 5 million EVs on the road (out of a global car stock of 1.2 billion). When looking at how the EV market might develop, we addressed common questions such as whether battery cost and range is still a stumbling block and whether governments are doing enough to give EVs a foothold.
EV growth will require massive charging infrastructure build-out, and stakeholders are scrambling to develop collaborative business models to access multiple streams of spend and revenue. Interest and adoption of EVs is being driven by falling battery prices, government mandates and incentives, as well as ride sharing initiatives. The infrastructure to support widespread EV usage and the subsequent electrification of transportation, like the demand for EVs themselves, is still materialising. Find out how big this opportunity is and how leveraging EVs in markets and for local resiliency is critical to tapping into potential financial benefits, both charging revenue and grid services.