Aluminium: 3 things to know

The bulk alloys market in 2024 was a year of divergent trends, with the ore and alloys moving in different directions. Ore prices saw notable fluctuations, due to shifting demand and supply disruptions. As we head into 2025, the industry is navigating a phase of recalibration. In the realm of noble alloys, vanadium may see recovery, molybdenum prices are pushed up by rising costs, and niobium’s strategic value grows amidst geopolitical and technological shifts. Power prices remain a critical factor, with large variations across countries, adding to production costs and price volatility. In this Insight, we will assess the key things for each steel alloy for 2025. 1. A year of recalibration for chromium market 2. Manganese market awaits GEMCO's restart 3. Will Chinese silicon demand growth defy expectations for the second year running? 4. Power prices for alloy smelters will continue to vary widely, with no consistent global trend 5. Noble alloys navigate important developments in 2025

Reflecting on 2024, the demand uptick that everyone prepared for was dragged down by China’s lasting property sector crisis and overcapacity. It was further exacerbated by the delayed recovery of the European markets. Trade remained volatile, as Chinese exports reached 110 Mt in 2024, stirring tensions. Steel prices reached a bottom, and margins bled, prompting production cuts and delays in green initiatives by steelmakers. We see some glimmer of hope for 2025, which is set to bring a fragile recovery to steel demand as key markets aim for a flattish rebound. However, challenges like weak profitability and trade tensions will persist. At the same time, EAF technology faces hurdles from high costs and a tight scrap market, but gradual adoption is expected and imperative. The question of whether to decarbonise or prioritise financial health has emerged. Policy developments around the world will draft the narrative as markets turn cautiously optimistic.