Equity special winter report: flush production

Since the beginning of November, gas production has surged in the US. Daily pipe production in Lower 48 have increased from 102.2 bcf/d to as high as 105.9 bcf/d, primarily from increases in the Northeast, Texas, and the Rockies.  In the Northeast, operator behavior has driven this round of flush production, as producers held back activities in the summer, and are accelerating production entering the winter months.  

In the market today, players are paying a pretty penny to gain an edge on new wells coming online. Millions of dollars are being spend on technologies like SAR (synthetic aperture radar) to gain a slim edge on predicting near term production, as completions activity is only part of the picture. For example, wells can be completed, and show completions equipment on site, but held back from being turned on line (TIL’d). One important underutilised technique in the market is to watch the producer behavior itself on a real time basis. 

The key Northeast players including EQT, CHK and NFG, have been actively deferring summer production and bringing back flush winter volumes.

Detailed information of these key players is summarised in our full report, Equity special winter report – flush production, with analysis taken from our Production by Producer model. This provides a unique view into more than 30 individual operators so that individual behavior not always visible from the basin level is clear. 

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