Navigating uncertainty: the impact of pipeline dynamics on North American gas supply

Market repercussions if no new pipelines were to be built in the US Northeast

1 minute read

In an energy-driven world, the North American gas market has prospered with abundant, low-cost resources and favourable regulations. However, the regulatory environment is constantly evolving, and we have seen multiple high-profile pipeline cancelations in recent years due to regulatory headwinds and legal challenges. For a supply region that thrives on new pipeline takeaway capacity, the future looks as uncertain as ever if NO new pipelines could be built.

The video below provides a quick introduction to some of this analysis.

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Without new pipes being developed, the Northeast would face two different dilemmas by destination markets. Export pipes to growing demand hubs like the Gulf Coast, South Atlantic and Midwest would run completely full. However, export pipes to the intra-Northeast, New England and north to the Canadian markets would experience underutilization as gas demand in these regions declines over time from energy transition efforts.

Our scenario analysis highlights a future that is notably different from our base case, which can be unpicked in great details using our North America Gas Service. In the full video which leverages our industry-leading proprietary modelling capability, we modelled how this prolific producing region would react if pipelines can't support future growth and how the lack of infrastructure development impacts our base case production outlook.

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